After an alleged Terrorist Attack on April 22nd in Pahalgam, India-controlled Kashmir, India accused Pakistan of being complicit. The area targeted killed 26 mostly Indian Tourists, becoming the deadliest civilian attack in the area in over 20 years.
The Kashmir Resistance is a known militant group that India suspects is tied to Pakistan. The country of Pakistan has since denied involvement and claims this attack was either by local Kashmiri militants or by unknown actors unrelated to The Pakistan Government.
India has since downgraded all diplomatic relations and halted VISAs for Pakistani Nationals. Pakistan retaliated by closing Pakistani Airpsace to Indian flights. This effectively shut off commercial travel and commercial trade.
On May 7th, India targeted 9 Pakistan sites, including in The Pakistan-controlled region of Kashmir (Operation Sindoor). India claims Terrorist Camps were specifically targeted. Pakistan claims 31 deaths occurred, including civilians. Pakistan retaliated with drone and missile strikes, allegedly taking down Indian aircraft and drones (Operation Bunyan al-Marsus). The largest fighter jet dogfight has taken place, between 125 aircraft, since World War 2.
Since The British left in 1947, a partition was created. India used to be one giant nation, but it split into two separate countries. The northern region of this mass holds The Kashmir Territory, which has been disputed since the 1947 partition.
At the time, The Raj in control was Hindu, but 70-80% of the territory was Muslim. Due to Leadership, the region was largely held by India. The Raj ended up aligning with India, which made the region Indian Territory. This was done in exchange for military aid, as Pakistani Forces attempted to control the territory against The Raj’s authority.
Kashmir is a highly contested area due to it serving as a buffer zone against China. Along with this security benefit, major rivers, such as The Indus, flow through the area. This is a positive for access to major water sources (agriculture, consumption, hydropower).
At this point in time, India controls around 55% of Kashmir, Pakistan controls an estimated 30%, and China holds about 15%. This was settled after a series of Indo-Pak Wars.
The first being 1947-1948, instigated by Pakistani Armed Tribal Militias. This resulted in a United Nations-brokered Ceasefire and the territorial distribution we have now.
The Second Indo-Pak War (1965) consisted of thousands of Pakistani Soldiers disguised as locals, attempting to infiltrate The Indian-controlled region of Kashmir. Their intended goal was to incite rebellion. This was known as ‘Operation Gibraltar’. The United Nations once again resolved this dispute back to prior standing.
In 1999, Pakistani Soldiers and Kashmiri Militants once again infiltrated Indian-controlled Kashmir. They were able to capture strategic areas in The Kargil Region. India retaliated with air strikes and on the ground combat, eventually leading to a re-capture of status quo positions.
With this most recent attack, Pakistan has called for a neutral investigation. Likely due to historical context, India declined to participate in an independent investigation. This is due to a lack of trust.
By all accounts, this doesn’t mean India is necessarily ‘The Good Guy’ in this entire conflict. Pakistan discriminates if you’re NOT Muslim, and India discriminates if YOU ARE Muslim. Although, this is context-dependent.
There are acts of aggression on both sides. However, it is undeniable to not acknowledge Pakistan’s initiation for physical escalation based on prior incidents.
Both nations have a little under 200 nuclear warheads, with military equipment from a span of countless, including Russia, China, and The United States. America maintains a relationship with both countries. Pakistan, we primarily transact with them in regard to Terrorism (Al-Qaeda, Taliban). With India, it’s more of a commercial relationship for business opportunity (Significant Trading Partners).
The United States was able to intervene and secure a Ceasefire on May 10th, but this lasted a short 6 hours. Both India and Pakistan claimed the other side violated The Ceasefire Agreement, and evidence is scarce to suggest the instigator.
India claims repeatedly violations in Srinagar, Jammu and Udhampur in India-controlled Kashmir. Pakistan denied these claims, rebutting with alleged Indian attacks in unspecified areas of Pakistan.
This is the first reciprocal drone war with Nuclear Super Powers. Reports claim massive amounts of cyberattacks on both Parties’ infrastructure and electric grid. This has allegedly led to an estimated 70% of India being intermittent, if not entirely blacked out, in terms of electricity. But, this may be exaggerated and a form of propaganda.
While this is a continuous conflict that has existed for over 75 years, two Nuclear Powers escalating conflict not has potential fallout for The Rest of The World. Pakistan has stated their Nuclear Weapons are not simply for display, they’re meant to be used.
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